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Why Is BOK Financial (BOKF) Down 5.3% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for BOK Financial (BOKF - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 5.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is BOK Financial due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for BOK Financial Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

BOK Financial Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates as NII & Fee Income Rise Y/Y

BOK Financial’s first-quarter 2026 earnings of $2.58 per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.30. The bottom line jumped 38.7% from the prior-year quarter.

Results benefited from higher net interest income and total fees and commissions. An increase in loans was another positive. However, the rise in operating expenses was a major undermining factor.

Net income attributable to shareholders was $155.7 million, which rose 30% year over year.

Revenues & Expenses Rise

Quarterly net revenues of $553.8 million (net interest income and total other operating revenues) rose 10.3% year over year. The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $546.8 million.

Net interest income was $342.6 million, up 8.3% year over year. The net interest margin expanded 12 basis points to 2.90%.

Total fees and commissions were $209.8 million, up 13.9% year over year. The rise was driven by an increase in almost all components except other revenues.

Total other operating expenses were $354.2 million, up 1.9% year over year. This rise was mainly driven by business promotion, professional fees and services, net occupancy and equipment, data processing and communications, printing, postage, and supplies, mortgage banking costs and other expense.

The efficiency ratio was 63.21% compared with the prior year quarter’s 68.31%. A fall in the efficiency ratio indicates a rise in profitability.

Loans Rise & Deposits Decline Sequentially

As of March 31, 2026, total loans were $26.2 billion, up 2.1% from the prior quarter. The increase was driven by growth in commercial loans, commercial real estate loans and loans to individuals.

Total deposits were $38.7 billion, down 1.9% sequentially. The decline was due to lower demand and interest-bearing transaction deposits, partially offset by growth in time and savings deposits.

Credit Quality: Mixed Bag

As of March 31, 2026, non-performing assets were $60 million or 0.23% of outstanding loans and repossessed assets compared with $85.3 million or 0.36% in the prior-year quarter.

The company recorded nil provisions for credit losses, unchanged from the prior-year quarter.

The company recorded net charge-offs of $1.9 million compared with $1.1 million in the year-ago quarter.

The allowance for loan losses was 1.06% of outstanding loans as of March 31, 2026, which declined 12 bps from the year-ago quarter.

Capital Ratios Decline & Profitability Ratios Improve

As of March 31, 2026, the common equity Tier 1 capital ratio was 12.61% compared with 13.31% a year earlier. The tier 1 capital ratio and total capital ratio were 12.61% and 14.39%, respectively, compared with 13.31% and 14.54%, as of March 31, 2025.

At the end of the first quarter, return on average equity was 10.49%, up from the year-earlier quarter’s 8.59%. Return on average assets was 1.19%, up from 0.95% a year ago.

Share Repurchase Update

The company did not repurchase any shares during the first quarter of 2026.

2026 Outlook

The company expects loan growth of 10% from the 2025 reported level.

Management expects NII of $1.42-$1.45 billion for 2026, indicating a rise from the $1.3 billion recorded in 2025.

Total fees and commission revenues are anticipated to be $820-$845 million.

Non-interest expenses (excluding FDIC special assessment) are likely to increase at a low-single-digit rate from the $1.43 billion reported in 2025.

Total revenues are expected to grow in the mid-single-digit range from the $2.2 billion reported in 2025.

Management expects the efficiency ratio to be 63%. 

Provisions are expected to be $15-$35 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates revision.

VGM Scores

Currently, BOK Financial has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. It comes with little surprise BOK Financial has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

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